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domenica 15 aprile 2012

Liam Dann: Facebook deal points to bubble trouble

'The internet is a pain inside the arse," laconic British rock star Noel Gallagher told a press conference this week.

"i used to be expecting a little bit more ... it's really only a lot of folks on there moaning and complaining."

Sadly that's often true.

But for better or worse the web has only just begun to seriously change our world.

The migration of the media from print to web site, or from disc to download, with all of the associated angst and discussion, are both small steps compared with the social change the net will soon unleash.

Check out retailing.

What's going to we installed our high streets when the garments retailers go the style of the book and music shops? What is going to our workplaces appear as if once we are all connected in real time by video links?

The impact of the internet at the traditional business model and the rate with which it's having that impact never fail to amaze.

Facebook's US$1 billion ($1.2 billion) purchase of mobile photosharing application Instagram is the newest example.

Intuitively a firm with a paper value of US$100 billion buying an organization without revenue and 13 staff for US$1 billion screams South Sea Bubble, Dutch Tulipmania or dot.com crash. That's even after reading the hip, techie blogs that emerged so quickly to inform us why this isn't a bubble deal.

A lot of those bloggers have confused scepticism concerning the deal for scepticism in regards to the internet itself.

The web isn't really a bubble that may pop. And yes, businesses have to sustain. Most small and medium-sized companies in New Zealand don't also have a website.

However, Facebook is a listed company with a stock price which can very definitely be inflated to the purpose of explosion.

Given the effect that may have on US markets, it is the very last thing the realm needs. Facebook's move is not really without internal logic. Its management understands the necessity to evolve rapidly. Facebook must offer greater than just its original webpage interface or it won't last long enough to justify its valuation.

Instagram is worth US$1 billion because that was what someone was prepared to pay for it. But few except for Facebook may have paid that much. It's going to afford to lose one thousand million. It can't afford to lose the race to dominate the photosharing space on the web.

The rate of evolution on the net is where the chance lies.

Several US writers have talked about that Facebook has given two-year-old Instagram a better value than the venerable Big apple Times.

Even thinking of the structural challenges facing newspapers, the hot York Times brand faces no threat from a host of journalism students who think they could report the inside track better.

Instagram and any variety of web-based applications, including Facebook, do.

The facility to throw 1000000000 at Instagram shows Facebook is in an area where money has a further value than it does for other companies. That's always an overly risky space to be.

Another hint of a tech bubble emerged with news that the capitalisation of Apple topped US$600 billion. It is just the second one company to succeed in that valuation.

The last was Microsoft, which topped it for a short while in 2000 - the peak of a tech bubble.

The over-valuation of both Facebook and Apple could become a really real problem if either starts to expire of steam at the growth front. Neither has yet delivered profits or dividends to justify their enormous valuations. The focal point for both was pouring a reimbursement into the business. Investors are very tolerant of this while the stock prices rise.

a brief, sharp revaluation of either may be a timely reminder that the market must maintain some variety of correlation between value and real world profit.

Any other story this week that highlighted the growing power of the net was that of Christchurch band The Make Believe.

They're a couple of minor boys with guitars and decent voices, the type this country have been churning out for years. They sat of their lounge recently and filmed themselves covering a song by One Direction.

One Direction (for people who really don't sustain) are the most recent boy band sensation touring the realm and being mobbed by 13-year-old girls.

The web site for an influential US talent show host liked it enough to post a link to the YouTube clip.

Now the blokes have clocked up 600,000 hits on YouTube and feature picked up some style of management contract within the US.

It is the brave new world of web marketing in action. It's wonderful to peer how plugged in kids are and the way entrepreneurial. Good luck to them.

These smart kids are growing up with a way of the internet's potential instilled from an early age. For an older generation who grew up on vinyl records and video cassette machines it will likely be increasingly important to tackle the internet head on or be left within the dust.

It's miles scary after what has already been 15 years or so of dramatic change to think about that this can just be the start of something. It's also exciting. This can be a revolution without bloodshed and with enormous capacity to reinforce our lives.

The sole way we will be able to hope to manipulate it's by engaging with it and also you do not need one thousand million dollars to take action. That's the lesson for business.

twitter.com/liamdann



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